(※)This is a English translation of the HPTCJ’s News Release in Japanese
16th Jan. 2015
Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan
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Primary energy saving effect by increasing diffusion of Heat Pumps
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Heat Pump
& Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan (Chuo-ku, Tokyo; Chairman:
Hiroshi Komiyama), a general incorporated foundation that endeavors to promote
heat pump and thermal storage systems※1 that contribute greatly to
measures for saving energy and mitigating global warming and are recognized as
the equipment to use renewable energy in Europe, has unveiled its forecast for
diffusion of heat pump equipment till FY2040 and estimated primary energy
saving effects in conjunction with widespread use of such equipment and
systems.
※1:A heat pump is a technology to
utilize renewable energy by harnessing “heat” existing in the nature such as
the air for application to air-conditioning, hot-water supply, etc. The
technology contributes to prevention of global warming by replacing the
traditional burning systems. Also, the combined use of thermal storage system
suppresses power consumption during the electricity demand leveling hours;
thus, enabling operation responding to the needs of not only the demand-side
but also the supply-side (demand response, etc.).
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Primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps
If boilers, etc. that meet the heat demands in private sector (residential and commercial sectors) and industrial sector are replaced by the heat pumps, estimated primary energy saving effects are as follows (figures in the parenthesis are the crude oil equivalent) ※2:
※2:Compared with those of FY2012. Calculation based on calorie basis. As for electricity, primary energy (power generation efficiency is taken into account) is used.
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In FY2020:▲283,000 TJ(▲7.3 million kL)
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In FY2030:▲697,000 TJ(▲18 million kL)
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In FY2040:▲902,000 TJ(▲23.3 million kL)
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In comparison with the FY2012 primary energy supply (including transportation), in energy consumption at least about 3.5% reduction will be achieved (as of FY2030). So by diffusion of heat pump equipment that is to say focusing in heat usage sector, there is significant energy conservation which could be achievable.
The effect to the FY2012 domestic final energy consumption ※3 is calculated as follows, as a result more than 8% reduction (as of FY2030) would be achieved in comparison with final energy consumption of the private and industrial sector.
※3:Compared with those of FY2012. Calculation based on calorie basis.As for electricity, secondary energy (1kWh=3.6MJ) is used.
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Effect toward final energy consumption
with primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps
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FY2020
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FY2030
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FY2040
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Residential
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▲7.2%
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▲19.2%
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▲24.6%
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Commercial
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▲2.5%
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▲6.8%
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▲8.8%
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Industrial(Including agriculture)
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▲2.9%
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▲5.1%
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▲5.4%
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Total of private and industrial
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▲3.6%
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▲8.2%
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▲9.8%
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Total(Including transportation)
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▲2.8%
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▲6.3%
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▲7.6%
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Breakdown of primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps (by fiscal year for each application)
In comparison
with the reference year (FY2012), the breakdown of primary energy saving effects
by increasing diffusion of heat pumps by sectors (residential, commercial,
industrial and agricultural sectors) and by applications (hot water supply, space
heating / cooling, heating, etc.) is as mentioned below:
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Breakdown of primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps by sectors and by applications comparison with FY2012 (Units: TJ/year)
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FY2020
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FY2030
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FY2040
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Residential
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127,937
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338,936
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455,393
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Hot water supply
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57,230
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145,194
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188,300
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Air conditioner
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70,707
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193,742
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267,093
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Commercial
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64,889
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174,495
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231,891
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Hot water supply
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3,016
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46,370
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82,001
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Air conditioner (High efficiency)
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61,873
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128,125
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149,890
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Central
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49,296
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98,660
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110,901
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VRF
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12,577
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29,465
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38,989
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Industrial
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89,532
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182,668
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213,024
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For space heating / cooling
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35,956
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62,660
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71,961
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For heating
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14,541
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29,121
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36,460
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For low temperature drying
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22,703
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41,845
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48,280
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For high temperature use
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16,333
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49,042
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56,324
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Agricultural
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396
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1,190
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1,362
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Total
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282,754
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697,289
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901,670
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Though the periods when primary energy saving effects become obvious are different, depending on the differences in the years when the applicable heat pump equipment are brought to the market as well as their diffusion curves, which vary by sectors or applications, if the heat pump equipment get more widely adopted as anticipated, a significant energy conservation would be achievable.
In this estimation, major items changed from the study in the previous years are as follows:
・ Reference year has been changed to FY2012.
(Reduction from FY2012 has been calculated.)
・ The forecast period has been extended to FY2040.
・ Diffusion curves have been changed with reflecting the most recent introduction trend of heat pump equipment.
・ Calculation is performed with taking into account the trend of efficiency that incorporates the most recent efficiency of heat pump equipment.
(For some equipment, the efficiency has been changed to the efficiency in a certain period such as Annual Performance Factor (APF), annual heat retention efficiency of hot water, etc.)
・ Regarding household air conditioners and multi-split type air conditioners for buildings, an energy-saving effect through enhanced efficiency by replacing the existing heat pump equipment with the latest type equipment is added.
As for other details such as anticipated demand, setting of heat pump diffusion rates, calculation, etc., please refer to the attachment below:
News release
Attachment: Survey on Heat Pump Diffusion Forecast
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