Primary energy saving effect by increasing diffusion of Heat Pumps

()This is a English translation of the HPTCJ’s News Release in Japanese

            16th Jan. 2015
 Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan


Primary energy saving effect by increasing diffusion of Heat Pumps
 

Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan (Chuo-ku, Tokyo; Chairman: Hiroshi Komiyama), a general incorporated foundation that endeavors to promote heat pump and thermal storage systems※1 that contribute greatly to measures for saving energy and mitigating global warming and are recognized as the equipment to use renewable energy in Europe, has unveiled its forecast for diffusion of heat pump equipment till FY2040 and estimated primary energy saving effects in conjunction with widespread use of such equipment and systems.

 

※1A heat pump is a technology to utilize renewable energy by harnessing “heat” existing in the nature such as the air for application to air-conditioning, hot-water supply, etc. The technology contributes to prevention of global warming by replacing the traditional burning systems. Also, the combined use of thermal storage system suppresses power consumption during the electricity demand leveling hours; thus, enabling operation responding to the needs of not only the demand-side but also the supply-side (demand response, etc.).

Primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps

If boilers, etc. that meet the heat demands in private sector (residential and commercial sectors) and industrial sector are replaced by the heat pumps, estimated primary energy saving effects are as follows (figures in the parenthesis are the crude oil equivalent) 2:
 
※2:Compared with those of FY2012. Calculation based on calorie basis. As for electricity, primary energy (power generation efficiency is taken into account) is used. 

  • In FY2020:▲283,000 TJ(▲7.3 million kL)

  • In FY2030:▲697,000 TJ(▲18 million kL)

  • In FY2040:▲902,000 TJ(▲23.3 million kL

In comparison with the FY2012 primary energy supply (including transportation), in energy consumption at least about 3.5% reduction will be achieved (as of FY2030). So by diffusion of heat pump equipment that is to say focusing in heat usage sector, there is significant energy conservation which could be achievable.

The effect to the FY2012 domestic final energy consumption 3 is calculated as follows, as a result more than 8% reduction (as of FY2030) would be achieved in comparison with final energy consumption of the private and industrial sector. 

※3:Compared with those of FY2012.  Calculation based on calorie basis.As for electricity, secondary energy (1kWh=3.6MJ) is used.   

Effect toward final energy consumption
 
with primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps

 

FY2020

FY2030

FY2040

Residential

▲7.2%

▲19.2%

▲24.6%

Commercial

▲2.5%

▲6.8%

▲8.8%

Industrial(Including agriculture)

▲2.9%

▲5.1%

▲5.4%

Total of private and industrial

▲3.6%

▲8.2%

▲9.8%

Total(Including transportation)

▲2.8%

▲6.3%

▲7.6%

 

                         

Breakdown of primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps (by fiscal year for each application)

In comparison with the reference year (FY2012), the breakdown of primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps by sectors (residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural sectors) and by applications (hot water supply, space heating / cooling, heating, etc.) is as mentioned below:

Breakdown of primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps by sectors and by applications comparison with FY2012 (Units: TJ/year)

 

FY2020

FY2030

FY2040

Residential

127,937

338,936

455,393

 

Hot water supply

57,230

145,194

188,300

 

Air conditioner

70,707

193,742

267,093

Commercial

64,889

174,495

231,891

 

Hot water supply

3,016

46,370

82,001

 

Air conditioner (High efficiency)

61,873

128,125

149,890

 

 

Central

49,296

98,660

110,901

 

 

VRF

12,577

29,465

38,989

Industrial

89,532

182,668

213,024

 

For space heating / cooling

35,956

62,660

71,961

 

For heating

14,541

29,121

36,460

 

For low temperature drying

22,703

41,845

48,280

 

For high temperature use

16,333

49,042

56,324

Agricultural

396

1,190

1,362

Total

282,754

697,289

901,670

Though the periods when primary energy saving effects become obvious are different, depending on the differences in the years when the applicable heat pump equipment are brought to the market as well as their diffusion curves, which vary by sectors or applications, if the heat pump equipment get more widely adopted as anticipated, a significant energy conservation would be achievable.

In this estimation, major items changed from the study in the previous years are as follows:

・  Reference year has been changed to FY2012.

    (Reduction from FY2012 has been calculated.)

・  The forecast period has been extended to FY2040.

・  Diffusion curves have been changed with reflecting the most recent introduction trend of heat pump equipment.

・  Calculation is performed with taking into account the trend of efficiency that incorporates the most recent efficiency of heat pump equipment.

    (For some equipment, the efficiency has been changed to the efficiency in a certain period such as Annual Performance Factor (APF), annual heat retention efficiency of hot water, etc.)

・  Regarding household air conditioners and multi-split type air conditioners for buildings, an energy-saving effect through enhanced efficiency by replacing the existing heat pump equipment with the latest type equipment is added.

As for other details such as anticipated demand, setting of heat pump diffusion rates, calculation, etc., please refer to the attachment below:

PDFダウンロード News release
PDFダウンロード Attachment: Survey on Heat Pump Diffusion Forecast
            

Contact
Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan
Hulic Kakigaracho BLDG 6F 1-28-5 Nihonbashi Kakigara-cho Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-0014, Japan
Tel: +81-3-5643-2404 Fax: +81-3-5641-4501

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